June 24, 2019

100 years since the end of the First World War and the current geopolitical situation

By Corneliu Pivariu.

Motto: Tomorrow has long ago became yesterday” –folk verse

On 11th of November, 2018, Emmanuel Macron, the president of France delivered, at the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, in front of more than 70 heads of state and government, a speech marking 100 years since the armistice which brought to an end the First World War and then, together with some of his counterparts,(one notable absence was the American president Donald Trump) and heads of international organisations (UN, UNESCO, OCDE, IMF, etc) signed a joint statement on the occasion of the first session of the Paris Peace Forum (a French initiative dated January, 2018, which seems of not enjoying too great an international attention).

The end of the First World War heralded some important developments such as the end of the European empires and the emergence of the Soviet Union, the United States of America’s joining the great global powers, which was a reference in the world history and which, nevertheless, contributed to triggering the Second World War. Despite the French president’s desire to offer a dovish image of the world, we noticed that the struggle for the world supremacy is underway and the developments of the last years proved us that nothing of what we considered to be the pillars of the post-Second World War is any longer guaranteed but, on the contrary, the danger of the Third World War’s breaking out is increasing.

President Macron stated in his 11th of November speech, inter alia, that “patriotism is exactly the opposite of nationalism”, a statement we find repeated and shared by many formations and personalities who are firm believers of globalism without frontiers and which, due to considerations we do not elaborate on here, we think it is a forced one. At the same time, we mention here the speech of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Brussels, on 4th of December, at the German Marshall Fund, entitled ”Restoring the Role of the Nation-state within the International Liberal Order”.

In fact, the current leaders of the democratic world are not feeling well in their positions, the president Macron is confronted with a vehement opposition concealed behind the yellow waistcoats which is an uprising against globalism and against not caring at all about the situation of those with small and medium incomes, Donald Trump is further confronted with a strong political opposition backed by a great part of the American media, Angela Merkel will pass the hat after almost two decades of leading Germany, Theresa May is not feeling well either in Great Britain and the European Union’s leadership in Brussels do not succeed in finding viable and pragmatic solutions to the situation they are faced with.

The current situation is illustrated by a publicly issued map ever since the summer of 2014 (we remind that in 2006, an American researcher published a map of the New Middle East). Some of the important changes: the emergence of New Russia (with separatist regions Donetsk and Luhansk, all Ukraine’s south on the Black Sea and the Transnistrian region included); Poland’s amputation by Germany and the emergence of a new Galitia state (with territories taken over mainly from Poland and Ukraine); Belgium’s disappearance (Wallonia remaining only), while the Flemish region is included in The Netherlands; Italy is divided between North and South, the Basque Country and Catalunya emerge in Spain, the Greater Albania emerges as well, Turkey takes over part of South-East Bulgaria while Hungary takes part of Western Romania (Banat and part of Transylvania).

These would be some of the modifications liable to be visible yet we should not forget that globally the struggle for supremacy is waged between the states’ political and military power and the corporations’ political and economic power.

What is more worrying is the corporations’ long-term policy focussed on destroying the family’s, marriage and parenting traditional norms to the benefit of individual autonomy, of devising an egoistical identity and of a lifestyle excluding the familial commitments on a longer term. A detrimental option on a long run of those corporations.

The brightening future is not ours and it seems that tomorrow has long ago became yesterday. Nevertheless, we believe that it is up to us all to retrieve it and to find each other for avoiding a new catastrophic war.

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About the author:

Corneliu Pivariu, former first deputy for military intelligence (two stars general) in the Romanian MoD, retired 2003. Member of IISS – London, alumni of Harvard – Kennedy School Executive Education and others international organizations. Founder of INGEPO Consulting, and bimonthly Bulletin, Geostrategic Pulse”. Main areas of expertise – geopolitics, intelligence and security.

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Corneliu Pivariu. Photographer: Ionus Paraschiv.

 

 

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